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Exelixis Inc. (EXEL): STELLAR-303 NLM subgroup misses on OS
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Exelixis Inc. (EXEL): STELLAR-303 NLM subgroup misses on OS
Equity Research
22 June 2026 | 12:32PM EDT
NLM subpopulation statistically shows a trend but misses in the final analysis; Paul Choi
+1(212)902-5217 | paul.k.choi@gs.com
PDUFA and commercial impact likely limited. EXEL shares are modestly Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
underperforming (down -1.3% vs. XBI: +3.5% intraday) following the announcement Daniel Ni, Ph.D.
that final analysis of the dual primary endpoint in the NLM (non-liver metastases) +1(212)902-2365Goldman Sachs & Co.| daniel.ni@gs.comLLC
patients subset from the Phase 3 STELLAR-303 pivotal trial evaluating zanzalintinib +
atezolizumab in 3L+ metastatic-colorectal cancer (mCRC) did not reach statistical
significance. Specifically, the company reported the zanza + atezo combo showed a
non-statistically significant trend in OS favoring the combination in the NLM
subpopulation with HR of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.66–1.05; P=0.1185). The median OS of the
combo arm was 15.9 vs 12.7 months with regorafenib. Overall, we see the results
mildly disappointing but as unlikely to affect the upcoming PDUFA nor the
commercial opportunity in later line mCRC. Recall, the STELLAR-303 study was
designed with a dual primary endpoint trial of OS in the ITT population and in the
NLM subgroup of patients (i.e., one positive result from the dual endpoints is needed
to deem the overall trial a success). As such, from a statistical perspective, the trial
remain valid in meeting the primary endpoint. Additionally, as the ITT endpoint was
met, which includes both the non-NLM and NLM populations, we think physicians
would still have the flexibility to prescribe the combo therapy to both populations
when they see fit, if the combo therapy is approved. Ahead, we look for more
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