Olin (OLN.N): Chlor-Alkali Segment Progressing Well

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Olin (OLN.N): Chlor-Alkali Segment Progressing Well

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22 Jun 2026 20:54:06 ET │ 11 pages

Olin (OLN.N)

Chlor-Alkali Segment Progressing Well

CITI’S TAKE

We are renewing our estimates ahead of 2Q earnings for Olin. We note: 1)

Rating Suspended higher ECU margins driven by ~$40/dmt price increase in caustic soda

Price (22 Jun 26 16:00) US$21.54 and lower energy prices. 2) A sequential demand strength in caustic,

driven by seasonal uplift in water treatment demand as well as higher Target price -

demand from alumina processing. 3) Given higher NA chlorovinyl demand from -

from ME disruption and seasonal uptick, ECU operating rates steadily Expected share price return -

increased reaching ~85% levels in June. This has led to more balanced Expected dividend yield -

caustic supply levels, in our view. 4) Epoxy margins should continue to see Expected total return -

modest uptick with meaningful step up in 2Q and into 3Q. OLN recently Market Cap US$2,455M

announced a merger of equals with HUN; with OLN owning 54.5% of the

combined company, the deal is expected to close by 1H27, pending

regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Patrick CunninghamAC

Model Update — We raise our 2Q26 EBITDA estimates by $3mm to account for +1-212-816-6684

modestly higher ECU margins driven by higher caustic soda prices. We note that our patrick.cunningham@citi.com

2Q estimates are at the top end of OLN’s $160-200mm guidance range. Our 3Q Alexander Yi

EBITDA estimates are also raised modestly by ~5% to reflect higher operating rates +1-212-816-4220

and steady demand environment in the chlor-alkali chain. As such our FY2026

alexander.yi@citi.com

EBITDA estimates move up by ~1%. Citi estimates are calculated on a stand-alone

basis, not taking into account the M&A transaction. Rachel Lee