Australian Metals & Mining Weekly: BHP projects: Vicuña + Jansen. Gold=headwinds for now. SGM=upgrades.

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Australian Metals & Mining Weekly: BHP projects: Vicuña + Jansen. Gold=headwinds for now. SGM=upgrades.

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Australian Metals & Mining Weekly

BHP projects: Vicuña + Jansen.

Gold=headwinds for now. SGM=upgrades.

Industry Overview

BHP: Lundin CMD shines spotlight on Vicuña mega-project 22 June 2026 Corrected

BHP & Lundin mining are 50/50 partners in the Vicuna copper JV in Argentina. FID later Equity

this year. Lundin held a capital markets day in London shining the spotlight on Vicuna. Australia

Stage I: Capex ($7-8bn) seems low vs. comparable ex-post Greenfield capex. Greenfield Metals & Mining

projects tend to be late and over-budget, in our view. This means that, ex-post, such Equity Research

projects can be (at best) NPV neutral or even NPV negative. Why build then? Answer: To Kate McCutcheon >>

create future growth optionality. The real value in Vicuña comes from Stage II and III. ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Australia)

That said, we see some unresolved potential challenges / risks for the "add on" projects, +61 2 9226 5728

kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com

although we acknowledge that development plans are still likely to evolve "from here".

Chen Jiang >>

See our note: Lundin CMD shines spotlight on Vicuña mega-project Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Australia)

BHP: Jansen capex II increase, implications for others? chen_jiang@bofa.com

Elaine Faddis >>

BHP announced an increase to Stage II capex for Jansen Potash (Canada) +41% to $6.9 Research Analyst

bn. Will also take a $2.3 bn impairment from the carrying value of the project. Expected Merrill Lynch (Australia)

elaine.faddis@bofa.com

start-up had previously been delayed from FY29 to FY31. The increase in Stage II capex

Paul Wiggers de Vries