State Street Corporation (STT.N): 2Q26 Preview – Market Tailwinds + Constructive Underlying Fundamentals

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State Street Corporation (STT.N): 2Q26 Preview – Market Tailwinds + Constructive Underlying Fundamentals

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22 Jun 2026 16:05:00 ET │ 15 pages

State Street Corporation (STT.N)

2Q26 Preview – Market Tailwinds + Constructive Underlying

Fundamentals

CITI’S TAKE Buy

STT and trust banks have been standout performers YTD, supported by a Price (18 Jun 26 16:00) US$168.31

favorable environment, and limited credit risk has insulated the group

Target price US$193.00↑ from broader credit-related headlines. Strong markets and volatility have

benefited fee growth, while higher deposit balances have lifted NII. 2Q from US$172.00

guidance for low-teens y/y revenue growth and >400bps of operating Expected share price return 14.7%

leverage implies uplift to full-year guidance, where we expect ~12% y/y Expected dividend yield 2.1%

top-line growth. Approximately ~59–62% of STT’s servicing and IM Expected total return 16.8%

businesses are geared towards equity market values, though absent these Market Cap US$46,583M

obvious market tailwinds, management highlighted stronger client asset

flows in the IM business in 2Q. STT screens as a consensus long (Figure 3),

though momentum has cooled over the past few weeks; but with clear

upside into 2Q and 2026, we believe the bar is achievable. We raise our TP Benjamin GerlingerAC

to $193 from $172 on a lower assumed cost of equity and higher +1-212-816-3538

normalized ROTCE assumption of ~24%. benjamin.gerlinger@citi.com

Mikhail Mrotchek

Estimate Changes — Our 2026E EPS increases $1.05 to $13.05 (vs. FactSet +1-212-816-2345

consensus of $12.48), 2027E EPS $1.65 to $15.35 (vs. FactSet $13.83), and 2028E misha.mrotchek@citi.com

EPS 30c to $16.00 (see Figure 1 for more detail). STT reports 2Q26 earnings on 16 July.

Kaili Wang, CFA