BNY Mellon Corporation (BNY.N): 2Q26 Preview – Positive Environment for the Group, But We See Better Relative Value Elsewhere

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BNY Mellon Corporation (BNY.N): 2Q26 Preview – Positive Environment for the Group, But We See Better Relative Value Elsewhere

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22 Jun 2026 16:05:00 ET │ 15 pages

BNY Mellon Corporation (BNY.N)

2Q26 Preview – Positive Environment for the Group, But We See Better

Relative Value Elsewhere

CITI’S TAKE Neutral

The trust banks have led the group YTD, though BNY has slightly lagged Price (18 Jun 26 16:00) US$143.63

peers which we attribute to more compelling risk/reward opportunities

Target price US$167.00↑ elsewhere and also comparatively softer 2026 EPS revisions. We are

revising estimates higher on the back of stronger market levels and a from US$136.00

modestly improved NII outlook, though our revisions remain slightly less Expected share price return 16.3%

pronounced than those of peers given BNY is relatively more indexed to Expected dividend yield 1.6%

fixed income levels and client activity. Heading into 2Q, BNY has screened Expected total return 17.8%

as a consensus long over the past month (Figure 3), likely setting a high Market Cap US$98,585M

bar. While we expect the trust bank group to deliver another strong

quarter, we continue to favor other names on a relative basis. We raise our

TP to $167 (from $136) on a lower assumed cost of equity given a better

revenue outlook. Benjamin GerlingerAC

+1-212-816-3538

benjamin.gerlinger@citi.comEstimate Changes — Our 2026E EPS increases 25c to $9.05 (vs. FactSet consensus

of $8.81), 2027E EPS 45c to $9.70 (vs. FactSet $9.67), and 2028E EPS 40c to $10.60 Mikhail Mrotchek

(see Figure 1 for more detail). BNY reports 2Q26 earnings on 15 July. +1-212-816-2345

misha.mrotchek@citi.com

Kaili Wang, CFA

+1-716-730-7408

kaili.wang@citi.com

EPS (US$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FC Cons VA Cons

2025A 1.58A 1.93A 1.88A 2.02A 7.40A 7.50A 7.51A