Laopu Gold (6181.HK): 2Q26E operation trend and 1H26E earnings preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

Laopu Gold (6181.HK): 2Q26E operation trend and 1H26E earnings preview

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22 Jun 2026 10:32:19 ET │ 15 pages

Laopu Gold (6181.HK)

2Q26E operation trend and 1H26E earnings preview

CITI'S TAKE

We expect yoy weaker sales but stronger earnings in 2Q26E with GPM

expansion more than offsetting the operating deleverage. We believe

2Q26E provides a bear case to gauge the business scale and profitability Buy

generated by loyal core customers, which have limited downside risks if gold Price (22 Jun 26 16:10) HK$434.80

price further declines. We do see mgmt is testing more measures to address

the loss of price-sensitive customers, which is likely to drive sequential Target price HK$659.00↓

improvement starting from 3Q26E. Our 6-7% lowered 26E-28E forecasts from HK$700.00

are based on the run-rate of 2Q26E, leaving more upside than downside Expected share price return 51.6%potential. We think the stock is oversold amid recent gold price retreat and

valuation is compelling at 10x P/E and 7.4% dividend yield in 27E (normalized Expected dividend yield 7.6%

earnings). Buy on attractive risk reward with new TP HK$659. Expected total return 59.2%

Market Cap HK$76,849M

Weak 2Q26E sales — We expect yoy sales pressure in 2Q26E mainly dragged by SKP

US$9,806M(weak April promotion) and Tmall (weak 618), given these two channels have more

price-sensitive customers who have left as Laopu’s product price premium has

significantly surged (~60% over traditional gold jewelers currently) after product price

hike and gold price retreat (see our notes Industry Check Post Apr SKP Promotion and

Lowering Estimates on Soft 618 Performance to Date). We estimate the two major Price Performance

channels accounted for ~30% of previous sales (down to ~20% now) hence the (RIC: 6181.HK, BB: 6181 HK)