Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

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Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

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Citi's Most Read – Economics

June 15 - June 21 22 Jun 2026 07:41:33 ET

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US Economics - FOMC – Hawkish shift as 9 of 18 want to hike

The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) surprisingly showed 9 out of 18

officials who submit “dots” think policy rates should be higher at the end of the

year. But with no officials dissenting in favor of hikes and most officials still

supporting cuts in 2027, the hikes seem to be penciled-in with limited conviction.

Chair Warsh further downplayed the dots in the press conference, indicating they

might be removed from the SEP by the end of the year and that he will not be

submitting a dot himself. We continue to think weaker jobs data and cooler

inflation will have the Fed cutting rates later this year, but we are pushing the next

cut to October as it may take more time to bring the divided committee into

agreement.

Andrew Hollenhorst | Veronica Clark

US Economics Weekly - Penciled-in hikes remain unlikely

Fed officials surprised us and markets hawkishly with 9 of 18 “dots” showing rate

hikes this year. But we continue to think the Fed’s next move is much more likely to

be a cut than a hike. Warsh’s plans to revamp policy making could add another

reason to keep policy rates on hold in coming months. Recently slower core CPI

and rising jobless claims are in-line with our expectation for upcoming data to be

more dovish. This, together with declining energy prices, set up the Fed to cut later

this year, in our base case.

Andrew Hollenhorst | Veronica Clark | Gisela Young

Two-year Treasury yields have stayed elevated Core PCE diverging from other inflation metrics

despite lower oil prices

2y tsy yield WTI price 5 Core PCE

4.3 120 Core CPI