Fresenius Medical Care (FMEG.DE): Expect Q2 26 to demonstrate another solid quarter of EBIT growth but US SMTG to remain subdued; Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fresenius Medical Care (FMEG.DE): Expect Q2 26 to demonstrate another solid quarter of EBIT growth but US SMTG to remain subdued; Neutral

Goldman Sachs Fresenius Medical Care (FMEG.DE)

What to expect in Q2 26e?

Overall we forecast organic revenue growth of +3.6% in Q2 26 with revenue of €4,833m

(+2.5% ahead of consensus); we forecast +70bps adjusted EBIT margin expansion Y/Y to 10.6%

and adjusted EBIT of €514m (+5.4% ahead of consensus).

Expect strong care delivery performance despite subdued SMTG in the US; continue

to see headwinds into H2 26. Based on recent commentary at our Global Healthcare

Conference, we expect subdued trends for SMTG in the US to persist in Q2 26 - in part to

disruption to patient on-boarding resulting from clinic closures in Q1 / Q2; GSe US SMTG

-0.3%. Despite our expectations for subdued SMTG, we do expect another quarter of

solid EBIT growth supported by (1) further clinic closures, and (2) further TDAPA

benefits. GSe adjusted EBIT in Care Delivery is €468m (+8.3% ahead of consensus). Into

H2 26, we expect a more challenging set up as TDAPA tailwinds turn to headwinds and

we expect to see some headwinds from ACA subsidy expiry (although we now expect

smaller headwind than the €50m included in FME’s guidance). Any additional data on

the implications of Hv-HDF for treatment mix, treatment volume (via share gains, missed

treatment or mortality benefits) could materially shift the equity narrative, although we

are unsure whether management will be in a position to present that data as soon as Q2

26 given we are still in the relatively early innings of the 5008x rollout.

Care Enablement performance still impacted by China headwinds; expect

improvement in H2. We forecast +2% organic growth for Care Enablement, with only