Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Amrize Ltd (AMRZ.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Revenue growth YoY (%) 0.9 5.4 6.4 6.0

EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 25.3 25.9 26.5

EBITDA growth YoY (%) (6.8) 11.3 8.7 8.7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

US construction spending across all end market RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

verticals - residential, non-residential and Construction spending surprises to the upside

infrastructure. which could result from faster rate cuts Sales / 13,250

The ability to lift margins through self-help (supports residential spend) and more rapid Revenue 12,780 18,578

measures. reshoring activity. (US$, mn) 13,495

M&A optionality which tops up organic growth. Pricing proves more resilient, expanding

margins.

3,535

M&A is a larger contributor to top line growth. EBITDA

3,430 3,742

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mn) 3,556

Construction spend slows as growth is

impacted by tariff uncertainty and higher

3.08

100% North America interest rates continue to crimp demand. EPS

2.75 7.07

M&A is value destructive. (US$)

3.37

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

0.52

View explanation of regional hierarchies here DPS Inst. Owners, % Active 61.4% 0.40 1.00

(US$)

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x 0.63

HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 24 3 Month 4/5 Month 4/5

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Horizon Horizon BEST MOST

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short