US Roofing: Past The Destock

研报英文原文证据摘录

US Roofing: Past The Destock

Update

July 23, 2026 07:37 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MBuilding & Construction | Europe Daniel Khajenouri

Equity Analyst

US Roofing: Past The Destock Daniel.Khajenouri@morganstanley.comCedar Ekblom, CFA +44 20 7425-3065

Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4623

Key Takeaways

Building & Construction

Q2 US shingle shipments flat YoY after -30% in Q4 and -10% in Q1. We think this Europe

Industry View In-Line

probably reflects the end of a destock.

Better apparent demand, underlying trends still a bit soft we think considering

housing indicators.

Q2 US shingle PPI rose 1% YoY and 2.5% QoQ, with June up 3% YoY. Pricing is

beginning to respond following a series of announced manufacturer price

increases.

Equity implications: Investor concerns around weak volumes and announced

capacity additions have fuelled fears of a structural decline in roofing pricing.

However, Q2 data suggest this bearishness is overdone. Pricing appears to be

holding, while volumes are normalising. We acknowledge underlying market growth

remains limited, but the latest data support a more constructive outlook. We

maintain our Overweight ratings on Saint-Gobain (US residential roofing exposure),

Kingspan (US commercial roofing exposure), and Amrize (US residential and

commercial roofing exposure).

Residential roofing: Industry data points to a flat YoY performance in Q2, following

a very weak Q4 (-30%) and a still-challenging Q1 (-10%). On pricing, roofing PPIs

increased +1% YoY in Q2 and +2.5% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in the month of June,

remaining resilient despite a weak volume backdrop. This is consistent with our view

outlined in "US Roofing: Don't Confuse the Pause for the Peak". In our view, the US