Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Amrize Ltd (AMRZ.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Revenue growth YoY (%) 0.9 5.4 6.4 6.0

EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 25.3 25.9 26.5

EBITDA growth YoY (%) (6.8) 11.3 8.7 8.7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

US construction spending across all end market RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

verticals - residential, non-residential and Construction spending surprises to the upside

infrastructure. which could result from faster rate cuts Sales / 13,250

The ability to lift margins through self-help (supports residential spend) and more rapid Revenue 12,180 13,612

measures. reshoring activity. (US$, mn) 13,104

M&A optionality which tops up organic growth. Pricing proves more resilient, expanding

margins.

3,535

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE M&A is a larger contributor to top line growth. EBITDA

3,366 3,635

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mn) 3,520

Construction spend slows as growth is

100% North America impacted by tariff uncertainty and higher

3.08

interest rates continue to crimp demand. EPS

2.70 3.31

M&A is value destructive. (US$)

3.09

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

0.52

DPS Inst. Owners, % Active 61.4% 0.46 1.28

(US$)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 0.74

HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3