ECB watching 101: economics and rates

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ECB watching 101: economics and rates

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Euro Area Viewpoint

Price stability mandate, 2% inflation target 18 June 2026

We summarise the basics of ECB watching in a few pages. In a nutshell, the ECB has a Macro

symmetric 2% inflation target, in theory. In practice, however, we have the impression Europe

upside risks weigh more heavily than downside risks on its policy choices. That Global Economics Rates & FX

assessment is an important ingredient in our ECB call and Euro area macro forecasts. BofAS

Economics

Evelyn HerrmannCommunication tools: meetings, forecasts, speakers…

Europe Economist

The ECB Governing Council is large: six ECB executive board members and 21 national BofASE (France)

central bank governors. In theory, there is voting rotation, but that is not particularly +33 1 8770 0292 evelyn.herrmann@bofa.com

relevant for ECB watchers. The most important communication event is the monetary Chiara Angeloni

policy meeting, followed by the press release and press conference, eight times a year. Europe Economist

Minutes are released four weeks later. But, they are an edited document, not a verbatim BofA+39 02Europe6553 (Milan)0365

account. In March, June, September and December, the ECB releases fresh macro chiara.angeloni@bofa.com

forecasts. Details matter, but it is crucial to watch end-point inflation forecasts paired Ruben Segura-Cayuela

with the implied market pricing of ECB policy rate trajectories. EuropeBofA EuropeEconomist(Madrid)

+34 91 514 3053

Economists vs market pricing of ECB trajectories ruben.segura-cayuela@bofa.com

To compare economists’ expectations for ECB trajectories, we use Bloomberg RatesSphia StrategySalim

consensus expectations or the ECB’s own Survey of Monetary Analysts. For market Rates Strategist

MLI (UK)