Corn market cools, but risks simmer beneath

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Corn market cools, but risks simmer beneath

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Global Agriculture Monthly

Corn market cools, but risks simmer

beneath

Ag markets hit by sharp spec long liquidation… 18 June 2026

Agricultural markets have undergone an aggressive positioning washout, with net spec Commodities

longs down 88% in three weeks. Corn hasn’t been spared: managed money flipped from Global

decade-high longs to a net short by June 9, sending Dec 26 prices to a low of $4.4/bu. Global Commodity Research

BofA Europe (Madrid)

…but we believe the corn selloff is overdone Daryna Kovalska

Corn sentiment has softened, as geopolitical and weather risks have eased. But risks Commodity Strategist

MLI (UK)

have not disappeared; rather, they look deferred and could still trigger a supply shock. +44 20 7996 1023

We remain constructive, though, trimming our 2026 upside to $5.5/bu from $6.0/bu, daryna.kovalska@bofa.com

supported by three key arguments. Francisco Blanch Commodity & Deriv Strategist

1: Weather risk premium has been stripped out too early… +34francisco.blanch@bofa.com91 514 3070

Improved US rains have eased weather risks in the corn market, but threats persist in Michael Widmer

certain states. Nebraska (12% of US production) remains in severe drought, with crop Commodity Strategist

conditions 20% below average, while South Dakota and Kansas ratings (another 12% of MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 0694

output) are at risk of deteriorating without sustained rainfall. michael.widmer@bofa.com

Equity Research

…especially with an unprecedented El Nino unfolding IsabellaResearchSimonatoAnalyst >>

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to warn of an historic El Niño event. Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

Brazil’s corn output could be hit hard, declining 10% yoy in 2026/27E.