CHINA BASIC MATERIALS MONITOR: June 2026: weak domestic, strength in exports

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CHINA BASIC MATERIALS MONITOR: June 2026: weak domestic, strength in exports

Goldman Sachs China Basic Materials Monitor

China Basic Materials Monitor (June 2026): weak domestic, strength in exports

Our monthly China Basic Materials Monitor incorporates our proprietary survey of over 60 industry contacts to track: 1)

forward order book trends; and 2) inventory levels at producers and end-users. The survey includes aggregated comments

from producers and manufacturers in downstream sectors such as auto/EV, appliances, machinery, battery, solar, cathode

and property developers as well as steel mills, IO traders, cement, RMC and glass producers, metal fabricators,

containerboard producers, coal producers and power generators, and industry associations.

End-user orderbooks continued End-user orderbooks continued to pick up as of mid-June, a trend that remains in better seasonal pattern as in May. The

to pick up as of mid-June. picture may come as a surprise again, driven by better domestic auto, and continued strength in exports in metal

fabrications, machinery and power-related, as well as finished goods through paper packaging. At the same time, transitional

segments including electronics, appliances, and hardware softened. Construction demand remained depressed, and showed

no further incremental improvement since the last month.

On the supply side, safety enforcement in coal production has tightened and is likely to extend to the end of the year.

However, producers were unable to pass through the higher coal cost in steel, cement and paper segments. While steel

export remained elevated, challenges emerge from the newly imposed carbon tax from the EU. There are also signs of

acceleration of supply distress in small cement producers.