Global Rates Weekly: Task force hawkish

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Global Rates Weekly: Task force hawkish

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Global Rates Weekly

Task force hawkish

The View: Hormuz traffic and PCE details 19 June 2026

The decline in energy prices is a relief, but next week’s PCE report is likely to show that Rates Research

US inflation pressures are broader than just energy. We are short the US front-end, we Global

are in 2s10s flatteners outright and cross market, and we are short 10y vs Germany.

Table of Contents

─ R. Preusser

Core views, trades and forecasts 2

Rates: Task force hawkish The View 3

US: Hawkish Warsh = stay paid front-end & in flatteners; US rates underperform oil Rates – US 4

drop. Stop out of 2y inflation long on oil drop; keep 1y2y flattener. Rates – EU 6

Rates – UK 8

EU: Germany will present its Q3 funding update next Thursday, we discuss issuance and

WAM progress and reiterate scope for GE outperformance in Jul & FR underperformance. Rates – AU 10

Rates – JP 11

UK: Our call for hikes in July and September is subject to risks given our read of BoE’s Rates – CA 13

reaction function. We hold onto our 2s10s Sonia steepening view. Front end – US 14

AU: We like receiving AU 2y1y, paying US 2y1y and hedging potential AU CPI, jobs data Volatility – US 16

surprises next week with Sep/Dec RBA OIS steepeners. Central bank 101: Federal Reserve 17

Central bank 101: Bank of Canada 18

JP: The BoJ hiked 7-1 to 1%. Uchida signaled no change in hiking bias. Behind-the-curve Central bank 101: Bank of England 19

concerns have resurfaced; less frequent Rinban operations add upward yield pressure. Central bank 101: Bank of Japan 20

CA: We exit long CAD front end rates vs US rates near target. Markets now price more Central bank 101: Reserve Bank of Australia 21

Fed hikes than BoC hikes by year end.