France—Early Thoughts on the 2027 Elections

研报英文原文证据摘录

France—Early Thoughts on the 2027 Elections

Economics Research

18 June 2026 | 3:36PM CEST

EUROPEAN ECONOMICS ANALYST

n French voters will elect their next President in April 2027, with early legislative Alexandre Stott

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elections likely to follow in June. The outcome appears highly uncertain, as alexandre.stott@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

incumbent President Macron is prevented by the Constitution from standing for Branch

a third consecutive term, and the lower chamber of Parliament is currently

unusually divided.

n Far-right party Rassemblement National leads first-round polls with around

30-35% of votes, making its candidate very likely to reach the second round of

the presidential elections. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe on the

centre-right currently looks best-placed to claim second place, with polls

pointing to a very close run-off against the Rassemblement National candidate.

Prediction markets see Rassemblement National as most likely to win the

presidency, with roughly a one-in-three chance.

n The key question for the legislative elections is whether the lower chamber of

Parliament will return a majority to the next President, or whether it will remain

divided. Historically, the incoming President is usually rewarded a “winner’s

bonus”, allowing them to secure a majority in Parliament. But past elections

suggest that a President from Rassemblement National would likely face more

challenging odds, as other political parties might again unite against their

candidate in a so-called “Front Républicain”.

n Candidates and political parties have advanced few policy proposals so far,

making it difficult to assess the potential implications for France’s economic and

fiscal outlook.