1Q26 Earnings Brochure: A-share tech in the driver’s seat

研报英文原文证据摘录

1Q26 Earnings Brochure: A-share tech in the driver’s seat

Portfolio Strategy Research

21 June 2026 | 6:03PM HKT

CHINA MUSINGS

Following the conclusion of the 1Q26 results season, we highlight the key trends and Kevin Wang, CFA

+852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com

themes emerging from the financial statements of ~7,000 listed Chinese companies, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

as well as 4,500+ conference call transcripts: Kinger Lau, CFA

+852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

1. A-share tech leading the growth: A stark earnings growth gap emerged as

Timothy Moe, CFA

onshore indices (CSI300 +9%, ChiNext +22%, STAR +198% yoy) outpaced their +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

offshore counterparts (MSCI China -8%), driven by the “Hard vs. Soft” tech

Si Fu, Ph.D.

divide. We project 2Q26 and 2026E earnings growth of +11%/+20% yoy for +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com

CSI300 vs. 0%/+8% yoy for MSCI China, validating our preference for A over

H-shares.

2. AI profits shifting towards hardware, both globally and domestically. Within

China’s AI supply chain, the hardware profit share rebounded to 54% in 1Q26

(from 41% in 2024), while downstream software applications faced margin

compression.

3. Recovering aggregate revenues but bifurcated margins in “involuted”

sectors: Margins compressed for consumer-facing New Economy/POEs and

Banks, whereas Old Economy/SOEs experienced a margin recovery.

4. “Going global” is still ongoing: Despite tariff uncertainties, Chinese corporates

expanded their overseas revenue exposure to 18% in 2025 (from 16% in

2024), led by Autos, Semis, Cap Goods, Pharma, and Transportation.

5. Total corporate cash returns are projected to reach a record Rmb3.8tn in 2026