Global Energy Weekly: Oil gets the memo

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Global Energy Weekly: Oil gets the memo

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Global Energy Weekly

Oil gets the memo

The US and Iran agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz… 17 June 2026

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for more than 100 days now, but a Commodities

memorandum of understanding (MOU) to reopen it is now emerging. While it is unclear Global

whether the arrangement will proceed smoothly, news of a signing ceremony this Friday Global Commodity Research

in Geneva has increased selling pressure on Brent. The drop in oil prices has been BofA Europe (Madrid)

concentrated in the front of the curve, with crude time spreads collapsing from $5/bbl to Francisco Blanch

about $0.50 backwardation. As we anticipated three weeks ago, a full reopening of Commodity & Deriv Strategist BofA Europe (Madrid)

Hormuz could mean Brent prices average $82/bbl this year, compared to our prior +34 91 514 3070

expectation of $93/bbl, so we moved ahead to adjust our baseline forecasts to this level Clifton White

(see our report, Hormuz for Hormuz opens new oil path). Having averaged about $90/bbl Commodity Strategist BofAS

in 1H26, this means that Brent would likely have to trade in the $70-80/bbl range for clifton.white@bofa.com

most of 2H26. Tej Sathe

Equity-Linked Analyst

…but volumes lost over 100+ days top 1.3bn bbls BofAStej.sathe@bofa.com

Even so, the excitement surrounding the full resumption of Middle East oil flows in the Noah Hungness

coming weeks ignores several major issues. Clearing mines and restoring flows to CommodityBofAS Strategist

normal levels is likely to take months, not days, given the logistical challenges, implying noah.hungness@bofa.com

that oil markets could remain in deficit until 4Q26. We estimate that production losses Rachel Wiser