INDIA AUTOMOBILES Exploring fuel price stability scenario + below-normal monsoon; raise TP on EICH

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INDIA AUTOMOBILES Exploring fuel price stability scenario + below-normal monsoon; raise TP on EICH

Equity Research

20 June 2026 | 3:12PM IST

INDIA AUTOMOBILES

Exploring fuel price stability scenario + below-normal monsoon; raise

TP on EICH

In this report, we address investor FAQs around Auto sector themes (metal cost Chandramouli Muthiah

+91(22)6616-9344 |

inflation, production bottlenecks vs channel inventory, 8th Pay commission and CAFÉ chandramouli.muthiah@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

3 BEV mix analysis). We also highlight best-positioned India Autos stocks poised to

Kota Yuzawabenefit if there is a full-fledged reopening of the Straight of Hormuz. Our analysis +81(3)4587-9863 |

indicates that during periods of cooling fuel prices, demand came back fastest in kota.yuzawa@gs.comGoldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

scooters, entry level cars, premium motorcycles and premium hatchbacks. In this Rishabh Rathi

context, we highlight TVS Motor, Eicher Motors and Maruti Suzuki as +91(22)6616-9388rishabh.rathi@gs.com|

best-positioned to see an added leg of volume growth. Goldman Sachs India SPL

The other emerging debate in the Autos space has been around implications from

the soft start to India’s southwest monsoon season. In the first 2.5 weeks of the

season, rainfall across India has been 38% below the long-term average. The last

time the monsoon was this deficient (El Nino in FY24), MAHM saw Tractor volume

decline of 7% that year, vs guidance for mid-teens growth given for FY27. We

nowcast our estimates on Mahindra & Mahindra (most affected by a soft start to the

monsoon, revise TP to Rs3,650 from Rs4,000).

We also address 4 other pertinent FAQs around (1) magnitude of margin headwind

that companies may need to absorb from metal price inflation; (2) OEM-wise analysis