Amadeus IT Group (AMA.MC): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26: lower volumes but strong unitary revenues and cost management

研报英文原文证据摘录

Amadeus IT Group (AMA.MC): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26: lower volumes but strong unitary revenues and cost management

Equity Research

19 June 2026 | 10:11AM BST

Amadeus IT Group (AMA.MC): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26: lower

volumes but strong unitary revenues and cost management

Ben Andrews, CFA

+44(20)7774-5489 |

ben.andrews@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Poppy Boyd-Taylor

+44(20)7774-2994 | poppy.boyd-

taylor@gs.com

We update our earnings estimates for Amadeus ahead of its 2Q26 results (due

Leo MoseJuly 31). IATA’s April RPK data came in softer than we had previously expected for +44(20)7051-2439 | leo.mose@gs.com

2Q26 (global RPKs -3.4% yoy), and IATA recently downgraded is FY26 outlook (now Goldman Sachs International

expecting +1.9% yoy passenger growth, slightly softer than the scenario outlined by

Amadeus at its 1Q results). We update our estimates to reflect volume headwinds,

whilst continuing to assume a recovery in 2H (albeit now slightly more modest).

Alongside this, we also reflect constructive commentary from Amadeus at our

conference this week, particularly around the strength of unitary revenue growth

across the rest of the year, and also on cost management actions to protect

profitability.

Estimate changes: After reflecting the latest trends, our 2Q26 revenue/EBITDA

estimates are now c.1%-2% below Visible Alpha Consensus Data, driven by lower

volume growth assumptions. Our FY26 cFX revenue growth assumption decreases

slightly to +6.2% (vs. guidance: HSD %), with stronger unitary revenues partially

offsetting softer volumes. However, our earnings forecasts (EBITDA, EBIT, EPS)

increase by c.1%-2% (at aFX), driven by lower fixed cost growth: we now expect

c.13.5% cFX EPS growth in FY26 (vs. guidance: LDD%).