GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - June 18, 2026

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GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - June 18, 2026

Equity Research

18 June 2026 | 4:18PM EDT

Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

chris.hussey@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Sarah Herr

+1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

macro issues we’re watching

Keep picking stocks, but make them capital intensive stocks

n Peter Oppenheimer highlights how markets are transitioning from ‘one big trade’

to greater cross-sectional dispersion as capital intensity grows alongside rising

rates, regionalization, and a thirst for technology in “The Post Modern Cycle –

Navigating the Capex Boom.” The opportunity: alpha generation. Focus on:

earnings growth + four themes: AI & digital infrastructure; power & energy

security; defense & national security; and infrastructure & HALO stocks.

Separately, Ben Snider points out that S&P 500 ROE has surged by 150bp during

the past four quarters, driven by technology-associated earnings growth in last

Friday’s Kickstart, “The impact of the AI capex boom on S&P 500 return on

equity.” Alpha is also on Si Fu’s mind as we seek out ways to capture upside in

Hong Kong’s surging IPO market in “Capturing Alpha in HK IPOs.”

Central Bank round-up: the Fed sounds hawkish, the BoJ is hawkish, and the BoE

does nothing at all

n David Mericle writes that the hawkish tilt from the Fed this week (9 committee

members expect a hike by the end of the year) is likely to fade if trade through

the Strait of Hormuz resumes (we think it will, see below), resolving the most

serious source of upside risk to inflation fairly quickly in “June FOMC Recap.”

Separately in Japan, the BoJ hiked rates by 25bp citing declining risks to the

economy alongside rising risks of an inflation overshoot writes Akira Otani in

“Japan Economic Flash.” Next rate hike: January 2027.