ANZ Group (ANZ.AX): A Non-Linear Path to Restarting Revenue Growth

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ANZ Group (ANZ.AX): A Non-Linear Path to Restarting Revenue Growth

Equity Research

19 June 2026 | 11:57AM AEST

Our take: ANZ’s share price performance in 2026 highlights the delicate nature of Brendan Sproules

+61(3)9679-1276 |

market momentum. The Market rewarded the progress made within Phase One of its brendan.sproules@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

2030 Vision, which has been focused on delivering a rapid organizational

Rushil Vaghani

transformation. In a very short time frame, ANZ has delivered a ~2700 FTE reduction +61(3)9679-1458 |

and upgraded its gross cost-savings target to A$875m. While this execution drove rushil.vaghani@gs.comGoldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

significant outperformance through February, momentum stalled by May. The

accelerated success of its productivity improvements ultimately caused investors to

pivot their thinking toward sustainable revenue growth earlier than expected. But

the initial focus on productivity has come at the cost to market share in both

domestic housing and commercial lending. Notably, early signs of recovery in

broker-sourced mortgage applications is emerging. However, this emerging lending

growth is likely to lead to very little near-term revenue growth in our view, as ANZ

has had to raise term deposit rates to 5.3%, the highest among Major Banks, to assist

with its funding task. This situation highlights the importance of the underlying

foundation work, which is another key ingredient of Phase One. Building sustained

revenue momentum will require patience and disciplined investment to bridge the

current competitive gap to its peers. This has created an earnings growth gap out to

the end of FY27 we believe, and an overemphasis by investors for cost reductions to

drive improved performance.