Taiwan: CBC on Hold With Dissenting Votes but Dovish on Inflation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taiwan: CBC on Hold With Dissenting Votes but Dovish on Inflation

Economics Research

19 June 2026 | 1:28AM KST

1. Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 2.0% at Irene Choi

+82(2)3788-1722 | irene.choi@gs.com

its June rate decision meeting. The decision was not unanimous, with two Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul

Branch

dissenting votes (out of a total of 15 members on the monetary policy board)

Goohoon Kwon, CFA

calling for a policy rate hike. Policy rate decision was not unanimous for the first +852-2978-0048 | goohoon.kwon@gs.com

time since March 2024. The result was in line with Bloomberg consensus but Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

against our expectation of a 12.5bp hike.

2. In the MPC statement, the central bank noted continued expansion of the global

manufacturing sector, along with strong investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI)

and related technologies. Elevated global commodity prices have pushed up

global inflationary pressures and led to downward revisions of global growth

forecasts. Monetary policy stance for major central banks (Europe, Japan and the

US) have been shifting in a hawkish direction.

3. The central bank raised its 2026 real GDP growth forecast sharply further to

9.45% from 7.28% previously (vs. GS forecast: 10.3% and Bloomberg consensus:

7.8%). The central bank expects continued expansion in exports and a positive

impulse to private investment, along with further strengthening in private

consumption. According to the Governor, around three-quarters of the headline

growth for 2026 is accounted for by exports and fixed investment.

4. The central bank also raised its 2026 headline CPI inflation forecast to 1.91% (vs.

1.80% previously). The forecast is in line with our forecast and Bloomberg

consensus of 1.9%.