Fortun OYJ (FORTUM.HE): Q2 2026 preview: Weak EPS expected, driven by lower nuclear volumes

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Fortun OYJ (FORTUM.HE): Q2 2026 preview: Weak EPS expected, driven by lower nuclear volumes

Equity Research

18 June 2026 | 5:51PM BST

Fortum OYJ (FORTUM.HE): Q2 2026 preview: Weak EPS expected,

driven by lower nuclear volumes

Fortum will release its Q2 2026 results on July 21st. We now forecast Q2 2026 Ajay Patel

+44(20)7552-1168 | ajay.patel@gs.com

comparable EBIT of €180mn and EPS of €0.14 (vs €0.11 previously, as we adjust the Goldman Sachs International

quarterly phasing; no impact to full-year numbers) which is below Lawrence Lavizani

company-compiled consensus (€197mn EBIT, €0.16 EPS). We expect the weakness +44(20)7051-1060lawrence.lavizani@gs.com|

versus consensus to be largely driven by more normalised hydro volumes and an Goldman Sachs International

Alberto Gandolfiadditional nuclear outage. At Q1 2026, Fortum highlighted nuclear generation +39(02)8022-0157 |

volumes were expected at 23.5-24.0 TWh (previously: 24.0-24.5 TWh) but we have alberto.gandolfi@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan

since seen further delays to the restart of Oskarshamn 3 after its outage which branch

implies a lower level than guidance, in our view. Fortum expects its optimisation

premium for 2026 to be c.€8-10/MWh. On hedging, the company has stated that for

the remainder of 2026 it is 75% hedged at 39 €/MWh and for 2027 it is 60% hedged

at 40 €/MWh.

As a reminder from the CMD, Fortum’s committed capital expenditure is expected to

be c.€2.0bn excluding acquisitions for the period 2026-30. This includes growth

capex of approximately €750mn in total and maintenance capex of approximately

€250mn per year. In FY 2026, Fortum aims to spend €550mn. In addition, Fortum has

potential to invest an additional €2.5bn until 2030 should attractive investment

opportunities arise.