BMW (BMWG.DE): Revising estimates to reflect a more conservative view followed by guidance cut

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BMW (BMWG.DE): Revising estimates to reflect a more conservative view followed by guidance cut

Equity Research

18 June 2026 | 7:11AM BST

BMW (BMWG.DE): Revising estimates to reflect a more conservative

view followed by guidance cut

We revise our estimates for BMW following the company’s ad-hoc release on 16 Christian Frenes

+44(20)7051-8641 |

June, in which BMW materially cut its FY2026 guidance due to China weakness and a christian.frenes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Europe restructuring provision, lowering the Auto EBIT margin by -300bps and Auto

Monika Mengting Liu, CFA

FCF by -€2bn (first take link). While the headline is negative, we view the share price +44(20)7051-7601 | monika.liu@gs.com

reaction, a decline of over 8% in the first trading session, as an overreaction and flag Goldman Sachs International

Shivam Kotechaa net industrial cash position now in excess of its market capitalisation. +1(332)245-7822 |

shivam.kotecha@gs.com

Our revisions are concentrated in the China JV outlook and the ex-China JV margin Goldman Sachs India SPL

Robert Triulzitrajectory. The revised estimates are substantially de-risked, while the core +44(20)7552-2281 |

investment case of a resilient capital return story underpinned by healthy cash robert.triulzi@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

generation and balance sheet position remains intact. We remain Buy rated with a

new target price of €84 (vs prior €107).

n Rebasing the China JV business for a tougher environment - China PV retail

volume fell -19.2% YTD yoy (with the ICE segment down -23.5% yoy). For BMW,

recent 2Q quarter-to-date volume and ASP trends are weaker than in 1Q. With

the Neue Klasse only available in China from 4Q, we anticipate two challenging

quarters ahead.