Boa Safra (SOJA3.SA): 1Q26 Model Update: Despite the likely improvement ahead, keep Neutral

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Boa Safra (SOJA3.SA): 1Q26 Model Update: Despite the likely improvement ahead, keep Neutral

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19 Jun 2026 08:18:09 ET │ 13 pages

Boa Safra (SOJA3.SA)

1Q26 Model Update: Despite the likely improvement ahead, keep

Neutral

CITI'S TAKE

We update our model to reflect 1Q26 operational data and fresh Neutral

macroeconomic estimates. We believe the company is focused on

increasing its sales volume and operational efficiency during the year, given Price (18 Jun 26 18:00) R$5.80

the expectation of higher utilization ratio of its units, leading to a fixed Target price R$6.50↓

cost/SG&A expenses dilution process. Meanwhile, the company may

from R$7.50benefit from a market-wide shortage of some seed varieties, driving prices

higher, as adverse weather with excessive rainfall during the soybean Expected share price return 12.1%

harvesting season constrained overall supply. On the demand side, Expected dividend yield 0.0%

producers could purchase seeds with lower technology amid El Niño-

Expected total return 12.1%related yield risks and higher cost pressures from fuel and fertilizers,

tightening its margins. Notably, during the last El Niño in the 2023/24 crop Market Cap R$823M

year, increased replanting in the Midwest region positively benefited the US$159M

company. Thus, a positive effect on SOJA3 is possible, as we do not foresee

a reduction in planted areas.

Regarding its order book, we expect that it is evolving on a similar YoY basis, Price Performance

combining soybean and other crop orders. Notably, other crops revenues is growing,

(RIC: SOJA3.SA, BB: SOJA3 BZ)reflecting the company's successful diversification strategy, meaningfully reducing

concentration risk and bad debt exposure. Most distributors and producers are