Fsn E-Commerce Ventures (FSNE.BO): Investor Day Takeaways: Guidance:45% EBITDA CAGR Over FY26-30

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Fsn E-Commerce Ventures (FSNE.BO): Investor Day Takeaways: Guidance:45% EBITDA CAGR Over FY26-30

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18 Jun 2026 22:11:47 ET │ 18 pages

Fsn E-Commerce Ventures (FSNE.BO)

Investor Day Takeaways: Guidance: 45% EBITDA CAGR Over FY26-30

CITI'S TAKE

Nykaa was up 6% yesterday on the back of a strong (& above consensus)

medium-term growth and margins guidance at its analyst meet. The

company guided early-teens EBITDA margins by FY30 (30%/45% CAGR on Sell

sales/EBITDA) at mid-point of estimates, vs 7.5% in FY26. We raise our Price (18 Jun 26 15:30) Rs297.70

FY27/28E EBITDA estimates by 6-7% (higher BPC ad income, improved

growth & marketing efficiencies in Fashion) vs earlier and raise our TP to Target price Rs240.00↑

Rs240/sh (45x Mar’28 EV/EBITDA; unchanged). At CMP, Nykaa trades at from Rs225.00

>40x FY30E P/E based on mid-point of its guidance. Sell on valuations. Expected share price return -19.4%

Expected dividend yield 0.0%Guidance and Drivers — Nykaa’s guidance (mid-point) for FY30E EBITDA of Rs34bn

is c20% ahead of VisibleAlpha Consensus (Citi/Consensus: Rs24bn/Rs28bn). At Expected total return -19.4%

mid-point of guidance, the company targets 31% CAGR in GMV over FY26-30 (BPC: Market Cap Rs852,560M

29% YoY; Fashion:35% YoY). EBITDA margins: early/mid-teens vs 7.5% in

US$9,037MFY26. RoCE of 40%+ by FY30 vs 21% in FY26. Key Growth Drivers: BPC: House of

Nykaa (31% YoY) led by New Categories, faster fulfillment (90% SDD/NDD),

international brands and Fashion: New categories (Sneakers), Men & Kids. Key

Margin Drivers: Owned brands, operating leverage, marketing efficiencies in

Fashion & sales efficiency in eB2B and advertisement income. Price Performance

(RIC: FSNE.BO, BB: NYKAA IN)

BPC: Wellness, Ads, SDD/NDD at 90% — Nykaa is set to enter a new adjacent