Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM.O): PayGo Sensitivity Analysis Implies Wide Range of Outcomes

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Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM.O): PayGo Sensitivity Analysis Implies Wide Range of Outcomes

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18 Jun 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 13 pages

Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM.O)

PayGo Sensitivity Analysis Implies Wide Range of Outcomes

CITI'S TAKE

After years of declaring it wasn’t possible, Tandem management is shifting

towards the Pharmacy from the DME channel, significantly altering its

business model. Its progress will be closely monitored each quarter, Neutral / High Risk

marching towards its goals: 80% of pumps sold and 70% of all U.S. sales in Price (16 Jun 26 16:00) US$16.69

the Pharmacy channel after 2-3 years. Simple math tells us that the shift

Target price US$17.00should benefit revenue and margins, yet in the near term can the company

balance giving away their pumps in the Pharmacy with increasing, higher Expected share price return 1.9%

margin disposable revenue? In 2026 we model 20% of new U.S. pumps and Expected dividend yield 0.0%

9% of U.S. supplies from the Pharmacy channel, accelerating through 2029

Expected total return 1.9%to 80% of pumps and 59% of total revenue. Yet, a scenario analysis can yield

significantly different outcomes wherein every 5% in U.S. Pharmacy Market Cap US$1,144M

pumps results in a $20M swing, and every 5% in Supplies translates to

$65M. We rate TNDM Neutral/High Risk.

Sensitivity analysis suggests a significant range of outcomes (Figure 1) — What Price Performance

can the shift to the Pharmacy channel bring to Tandem? In theory, going to the (RIC: TNDM.O, BB: TNDM US)

Pharmacy is easier access for the patient and reduces friction for physicians. While

Insulet pioneered Pharmacy access, Beta Bionics, Tandem and Medtronic are all

knocking on the door. Yet the business models of each are somewhat different. For