North America Insurance - Property & Casualty: M&A Activity Likely to Increase Across Sector

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North America Insurance - Property & Casualty: M&A Activity Likely to Increase Across Sector

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18 Jun 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 27 pages

North America Insurance - Property &

Casualty

M&A Activity Likely to Increase Across Sector

Insurance

CITI'S TAKE North America

ACWe expect consolidation across the non-life insurance sector to increase. Matthew Heimermann

The three factors that accompanied prior periods of increased M&A activity +1-404-443-4732

are now present—below trend premium growth, above-average return on matthew.heimermann@citi.compremium, and average valuations. Periods with all three attributes

witnessed ~100% and ~50% higher dollar and transaction volume than all Patrick Marshall

other years since 2000. Similar to past cycles, shorter-term investors are +1-212-816-2651

likely to benefit from owning the sellers, while the companies that don’t patrick.c.marshall@citi.com

need to acquire, but do so opportunistically, likely benefit longer-term

investors. In our coverage universe, we believe Ategrity and Hamilton

possess more seller attributes, while AIG, Arch, Chubb, and Travelers

possess more buyer attributes (see Figure 19).

Conditions appear increasingly conducive to consolidation — Historically,

increased M&A activity has occurred when premium growth is below 5%, return on

premium is above 15%, and P/E multiples appear normal (85-115% of LT average).

Today, growth, profitability, and valuation metrics are <4%, ~30%, and ~90%,

respectively (see Figure 2-Figure 4).

Past North America M&A has focused on traditional non-life — Historically, M&A

activity involving North America counterparties, considering transactions greater

than $250 million, have been dominated by traditional property & casualty insurer

and reinsurance transactions (see Figure 12).