Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

研报英文原文证据摘录

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Economics Research

17 June 2026 | 9:00PM EDT

Download PDF | Download PowerPoint Allison Nathan

+1(212)357-7504 |

allison.nathan@gs.com

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Jenny Grimberg

Changes to flag this week: +1(212)934-0199 | jenny.grimberg@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Lowered our 4Q26/2027 average Brent oil price forecasts to $80/$75/bbl (vs. Ashley Rhodes

$90/$80/bbl previously) following the announcement of a US-Iran deal but kept +1(212)934-4876ashley.rhodes@gs.com|

our 3Q26/4Q26 European natural gas (TTF) price forecasts largely unchanged at Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

€42/€40/MWh.

n Lowered our Euro area inflation forecasts to reflect the lower energy prices we

now expect along with recent data and now expect core inflation to rise to a

peak of 2.6% yoy in 4Q26 (vs 2.7% yoy previously).

Watching

n WATCH THE IRAN WAR. The announced US-Iran deal could pave the way for

lower energy prices, which could pose upside risks to growth and downside risks

to inflation, though the situation remains uncertain and we will be closely

watching how oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz evolve from here.

n Globally, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.4% yoy in 2026 amid

headwinds from higher energy prices. We expect global core inflation to decline

slightly to 2.8% by the end of 2026, reflecting a fading tariff boost and further

normalization in shelter and wage inflation but a boost from higher energy

prices.

n In the US, we expect real GDP growth of 2.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026,

reflecting a slowdown in consumer spending growth but solid business

investment growth. We expect core PCE inflation to remain around 3%