NC (036570.KS): Turnaround to multi-year earnings growth cycle transition intact; reiterate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

NC (036570.KS): Turnaround to multi-year earnings growth cycle transition intact; reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs NC (036570.KS)

retention trend seen in the latest PC cafe market share data, recording 16% market

share 4 months post the launch of the game (63% retention vs. peak market share of

c.25% in Apr.), we forecast Lineage Classic to record W570bn+ grossing revenue and

contribute c.W550bn on 2026E top line, and for the AION2 franchise to add

c.W550bn (c.W430bn grossing from AION2 KR/TW and c.W150bn grossing from

AION2 NA/EU).

n Going into 2027, we estimate AAA titles (Horizon Steel Frontiers and Guild Wars

3) to further contribute to top line...: Based on NC’s strong IP power and large

existing franchise fan base, we estimate Horizon Steel Frontiers (GSe 2Q27E) to add

c.W260bn to 2027E top line and Guild Wars 3 (GSe 1Q28E) to add c.W450bn to

2028E top line.

n ...supporting multi-year earnings growth with 2026E-28E OP CAGR of 27%: With

this, we raise our 2026E/27E/28E OP by 15%/20%/185% to

W485bn/W574bn/W785bn (+18% YoY/+37% YoY in 2027E/28E), supporting

multi-year growth OP growth.

n Key numbers to track (thesis pillars):

a. Existing titles retention: We monitor Lineage Classic and AION2 (KR/TW) PC

cafe rankings and key milestones/earnings announcements. A sustained

decline in rankings or weaker-than-expected update monetization could

challenge our view of a stable earnings base.

b. AION2 (NA/EU) launch indicators: Key metrics include Steam global wishlist

ranking, company milestone announcements, and post-launch peak

concurrent users retention. A weaker-than-expected global rollout could

reduce confidence in NC’s ability to scale beyond its domestic user base.

c. Horizon Steel Frontiers demand signals: We track Steam wishlist rankings