Chile IPoM: Dovish Risks to Central Scenario Projections

研报英文原文证据摘录

Chile IPoM: Dovish Risks to Central Scenario Projections

Economics Research

17 June 2026 | 12:57PM EDT

Bottom Line: the June Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) reinforces our assessment Sergio Armella

+1(212)357-9077 |

that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) toned down its hawkish language from sergio.armella@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

previous meetings and adopted a more neutral stance, as it assesses that the

balance of risks to inflation has shifted towards a more balanced outlook. In general,

compared with the March IPoM, the changes incorporated in the June IPoM are

limited and mainly reflect the weak performance of the primary sector in the first

quarter, which led the central bank to downgrade its 2026 growth forecast. There

were no significant revisions to the output gap or domestic demand, although the

composition of spending changed, especially in 2026. The central bank projects a

stronger impulse from public spending and a weaker contribution from household

consumption, whose fundamentals, in their view, have deteriorated. On inflation,

changes were fairly limited and driven by slightly higher short-term non-core prices.

The baseline monetary policy scenario shows a prolonged hold of the policy rate,

and while the model-implied short-lived hike foreseen in the central scenario of the

March IPoM around the third quarter of 2026 is no longer considered, the June

IPoM’s central scenario is consistent with a delayed convergence of the policy rate to

4.25%, the central bank’s point estimate for the neutral rate.

Overall, our assessment of the IPoM is that the central scenario projections carry

significant dovish risks. Above all, the statistical cutoff date for the IPoM was June 10,

before the US and Iran had announced a peace agreement. Therefore, the oil price