Stora Enso (STERV.HE): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

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Stora Enso (STERV.HE): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Equity Research

17 June 2026 | 9:03PM BST

We update our estimates for Stora Enso ahead of its 2Q26 results (July 23), as well as Gabriel Simoes

+44(20)7051-6922 |

to reflect the latest FX trends and marking to market commodity prices. gabriel.simoes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Our 2Q26 EBITDA is 2% above Visible Alpha Consensus Data. We revise our 2Q26 Georgina Fraser, Ph.D.

+44(20)7552-5984 |

EBITDA down 4% vs. our previous estimate. This is mostly due to georgina.fraser@gs.com

lower-than-expected EU cartonboard prices in the quarter coupled with slightly

Thomas Wardhigher-than-expected containerboard and pulp prices. We also adjust our pulp +44(20)7051-2527 |

volumes lower to incorporate the company’s higher internal usage of pulp. Finally, thomas.ward@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

our numbers for the forestry operations (reported under Others) also decrease as we Marcus von Scheele

see lower wood prices passing through. Although we revised our numbers lower, we +44(20)7774-7676marcus.vonscheele@gs.com|

are still ahead of consensus for the quarter, especially due to better numbers Goldman Sachs International

expected in the pulp division (given the company’s higher exposure to fluff and UKP

pulp, as well as the lower wood costs we expect for the division).

Our revised EBITDA estimates are now -6%/-15%/-14% vs. Visible Alpha

Consensus Data. Our lower than consensus estimates are led by Consumer

Packaging where we are -14%/-17%/-3% vs. consensus Adj. EBITDA for

2026/27/28, as we expect to see Chinese exports putting downward pressure on

consumerboard pricing in Europe. With our stronger-than-consensus 2Q numbers,

we are now +5%/-17%/-14% vs. consensus Adj. EBITDA for 2026/27/28 for the