Brazil: Firm Non-Farm Apr Real GDP Growth Driven by Industry and Services (Ramos)

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Brazil: Firm Non-Farm Apr Real GDP Growth Driven by Industry and Services (Ramos)

Economics Research

17 June 2026 | 8:25AM EDT

Brazil: Firm Non-Farm Apr Real GDP Growth Driven by Industry and

Services (Ramos)

Bottom Line: According to the central bank’s monthly GDP indicator (IBC-Br), real activity Alberto Ramos

+1(212)357-5768 |

rose 0.51% mom sa in Apr, slightly below consensus for 0.60% mom sa, with the miss alberto.ramos@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

partially offset by the Mar print +49bp upward revision to -0.18% mom sa. The expansion

of activity in April was broad-based, with positive contributions from industry, services, and

taxes, and to a lesser extent agriculture & livestock. Non-farm GDP rose 0.37% mom sa

(+1.4% sa from Dec-25). The year-over-year 0.92% print was visibly below the 1.5%

consensus. The carryover for 2Q2026 sequential growth is at 0.6% qoq sa, and for 2026 at

1.8%.

Going forward, we expect real activity to continue to benefit from federal fiscal

transfers to low-income households with a high propensity to consume, expansion of

real household labor and non-labor disposable income, the payroll-collateralized

and other upcoming lending programs, the increase in the exemption threshold for

personal income tax and a growing number of fiscal/quasi-fiscal/credit measures

ahead of the Q4 election, mitigated by tight domestic monetary and financial

conditions, rising inflation, high levels of household indebtedness, and low levels of

economic slack (unemployment rate below the NAIRU and output gap in positive

territory). Gross household real disposable income accelerated a high 6.3% yoy in

Mar-Apr (3.9% yoy a year ago), which, allied with a strong labor market backdrop,

should support spending in the coming months.

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