CVC Capital Partners Group (CVC.AS): Feedback From CVC Secondaries Deep Dive – Strong Growth Outlook

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CVC Capital Partners Group (CVC.AS): Feedback From CVC Secondaries Deep Dive – Strong Growth Outlook

CVC Capital Partners Group (CVC.AS)

18 June 2026 Citi Research

CVC Capital Partners Group

Valuation

We value CVC on a sum-of-the-parts basis. We use a discounted cash flow analysis to value the management fee-related

earnings (MFE / FRE) and performance-related earnings (PRE) streams, then add the on-balance sheet GP commitment and

subtract net debt as well as an estimate for cash requirements for ongoing operations. For the DCF, we use WACCs of c11-11.5%

for FRE and 16% for PRE (both consistent with peers), and apply a 4% terminal growth rate for both. Together, this approach

results in a fair value of EUR16.0, which we set as our target price.

Risks

We highlight the following risks to the achievement of our target price:

1. Lower-than-expected fundraising: This would result in downside to our management fee and overall earnings forecasts.

2. Underperformance of funds: Notwithstanding CVC’s very strong historic performance track record, weaker performance

would adversely affect the group’s carried interest/performance fee potential, its balance sheet portfolio, as well as its ability

to raise funds in future. It is particularly reliant on the performance of its flagship fund.

3. Concentration risk: While the group has diversified its offering with the acquisitions of faster-growing secondaries and

infrastructure, we forecast the Europe/Americas to comprise c40% of MFR over the medium-term and c70% of carry. This is

likely to lead to lumpier profiles for growth and PRE in future years.

4. Fee margin compression: While not materially expected at this stage, fee margin compression constitutes a downside risk to

our forecasts.

5.