Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Copom Preview, BCCh Decision, Mexico Midterms, LatAm Fiscal

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Copom Preview, BCCh Decision, Mexico Midterms, LatAm Fiscal

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17 Jun 2026 09:08:34 ET │ 21 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Copom Preview, BCCh Decision, Mexico Midterms, LatAm Fiscal

Ernesto Revilla AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru,

Argentina and Dominican Republic. Luis E Costa, CFA AC

+44-20-7986-9757

Regional Macro — The global focus today is Fed Chair Warsh’s first FOMC, with luis.costa@citi.com

investors cautiously awaiting to get insights into his interest rate outlook for the AC Esteban Tamayo

remainder of the year. In the region, markets are awaiting today Copom policy esteban.tamayo@citi.com

decision and any potential change in communication. We will also have the IPoM

release after BCCh kept monetary policy on hold yesterday, as widely anticipated. Leonardo Porto AC

Local assets in Brazil underperformed yesterday as polls sustain favorable leonardo.porto@citi.com

momentum for president Lulas reelection this year, with the gap widening in an

eventual runoff with Flavio Bolsonaro (Bloomberg, June 16th). Colombia was again Paulo Lopes AC

the outperformer, as markets price in chances of a favorable outcome in this week’s paulo.lopes@citi.com

second round presidential elections.

Thais Ortega AC

LatAm Strategy Trades — We are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long thais.ortega@citi.com

USD) long MXN, BRL and TRY vs CAD, CHF and THB, to capture high yielders carry

(link). Felipe Juncal AC

felipe.juncal@citi.com

Brazil — Copom will likely cut the Selic rate by further 25bps to 14.25% tonight.

Disappointing performance of retail sales in April. Fitch affirmed Brazil’s sovereign Donato Guarino AC