Money Forward (3994.T): Updating forecasts to reflect a strong Q1, raising target price

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Money Forward (3994.T): Updating forecasts to reflect a strong Q1, raising target price

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17 Jun 2026 02:56:42 ET │ 13 pages

Money Forward (3994.T)

Updating forecasts to reflect a strong Q1, raising target price

CITI'S TAKE

We update our forecasts to reflect strong Q1 results. Although we had

thought it would be difficult to achieve double-digit revenue growth in

FY11/26 following the sale and deconsolidation of subsidiary Smartcamp in Buy / High Risk

November 2025, revenue grew strongly by 25% in Q1 even after the removal Price (16 Jun 26 15:30) ¥3,871.0

of the subsidiary from consolidated accounts. Given the recurring SaaS

model, we believe the strong Q1 performance will positively impact Q2 and Target price ¥4,800.0↑

beyond. In line with our revised forecasts, we raise our target price from from ¥4,400.0

¥4,400 to ¥4,800. We maintain our Buy/High Risk rating. Expected share price return 24.0%

Expected dividend yield 0.0%Within business segment, corporate business particularly strong — The corporate

business, which accounts for c80% of ARR (the company's key metric for recurring Expected total return 24.0%

revenue), is performing well. In Q1, the number of paying customers rose 21% YoY and Market Cap ¥214,768M

ARPA grew 13% as corporate business growth accelerated. Customer acquisition is

US$1,349Malso accelerating, and we believe the firm’s sales efforts are fueling the adoption of

cloud accounting.

Need to acknowledge compatibility between AI and cloud — While there is a non-

zero possibility of AI replacing the company's accounting services, considering the Price Performance

corporate ARPA of ¥140,000 (annual) we believe using cloud accounting services is (RIC: 3994.T, BB: 3994 JP)

far more convenient and cost-efficient than development via AI.