Chartbook (May ’26): Sectoral impacts of Hormuz disruption begin to surface

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Chartbook (May ’26): Sectoral impacts of Hormuz disruption begin to surface

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Japan Watch

Chartbook (May ’26): Sectoral impacts of

Hormuz disruption begin to surface

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Manufacturing activity 15 June 2026

April hard data point to clearer divergence across industries. Real exports fell 2.8% MoM Economics

SA after rising through 1Q, but composition split: autos and other categories continued Japan

to decline, while IT-related and capital goods exports held firm (Exhibit 2– Exhibit 3). Takayasu Kudo

Japan Economist

On a nominal basis, exports to all major regions excluding the Middle East posted BofAS Japan

double-digit YoY growth, with total exports up 14.8% YoY. By contrast, trade with the +81takayasu.kudo@bofa.com3 6225 8592

Middle East remained weak: exports were down by around half from a year earlier, while Izumi Devalier

imports fell 56.8% YoY in April after a smaller 10.6% decline in March (Exhibit 4). This Japan Economist

points to a lag in how the Middle East shock shows up in Japan’s customs data. Even if BofAS+81 3 6225Japan6257

the Strait of Hormuz reopens, subsequent shifts in trade flows are unlikely to show up in izumi.devalier@bofa.com

the data before the July release (mid-August).

Meanwhile, industrial production rose 0.8% SA MoM in April, the first increase in three Apr ‘26: Hormuz disruptions start to

months (Exhibit 1). As with exports, output declined in autos and chemicals, but gains in bite 15 May 2026

business-oriented machinery and electrical and information/communication equipment

Mar ‘26: Iran shock hits sentiment;lifted overall production.

hard data lagging 16 April 2026

The inventory index fell further, reaching its lowest level since August 2021. Inventories