Val. Trends #934: Does FCAS’s end open the door for a German-Swedish fighter?

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Val. Trends #934: Does FCAS’s end open the door for a German-Swedish fighter?

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Valuation Trends

Val. Trends #934: Does FCAS’s end open

the door for a German-Swedish fighter?

Industry Overview

FCAS Cancelled 15 June 2026 Corrected

Europe's €100 billion ($116 billion) Future Combat Air System (FCAS) fighter jet program Equity

was cancelled last week (on June 8) at ILA-Berlin (the Berlin air show). The cancellation Americas

does not come as a big surprise and formally acknowledges several years of difficult Aerospace/Defense

compromises, industrial inconsistencies, and strategic divergences between partners. Ronald J. Epstein

FCAS (known in French as SCAF), was a European sixth-generation fighter program. Research Analyst

Conceived as a joint French and German project in 2018, with Spain officially joining in BofAS+1 646 855 5695

2020, it was designed to replace the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon. r.epstein@bofa.com

Mariana Perez Mora

What now? ResearchBofAS Analyst

The global fighter market is undergoing a generational shift simultaneously across the +1 646 855 5696

mariana.perezmora@bofa.com

East and West. The global arms race for 6th-generation warplanes accelerated in 2026,

Alexander Preston

with first operational examples likely to enter service early next decade. The US F-47 Research Analyst

and GCAP (Global Combat Aircraft Program - UK, Italy & Japan) programs are the BofAS

+1 646 855 3599

clearest Western paths forward. China’s pace of both 5th-gen production expansion alexander.preston@bofa.com

(Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-35) and 6th-gen development are the primary drivers of Benjamin Heelan >>

urgency for these programs. Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

benjamin.heelan@bofa.com