Global Metals Weekly: Aluminum vulnerable on China, Indonesia and inventories

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Global Metals Weekly: Aluminum vulnerable on China, Indonesia and inventories

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Global Metals Weekly

Aluminum vulnerable on China, Indonesia

and inventories

Threefold headwinds to aluminium 12 June 2026

Aluminium prices look vulnerable near-term as supply risks ease and demand concerns Commodities

persist. Middle Eastern aluminium production (10% of global supply) dropped by 35% Global

YoY in April. Yet, there is a risk that this is partly offset by (1) rising production in and Global Commodity Research

exports from China. We have factored in 46mt of supply from the Asian country this year BofA Europe (Madrid)

and expect a small deficit. That said, the market would be oversupplied if smelters kept Michael Widmer

producing at April’s rate of 47.6mt, reported by the government. This, and (2) the Commodity Strategist MLI (UK)

potential release of Middle East aluminium inventories should the Iran war subside, michael.widmer@bofa.com

means that both funds and commercial buyers have stayed on the sidelines. Beyond that, Danica Averion

(3) smelters in Indonesia could also increase supply by 2mt this year. Still, fundamentals Commodity Strategist MLI (UK)

ex-China remain strong, and investment in energy resilience may ultimately boost metals danica_ana.averion@bofa.com

demand, so we still see a pathway for aluminium to hit $4,000/t ($1.81/lb). Clifton White

Commodity Strategist

China boosts semi exports and primary imports BofASclifton.white@bofa.com

Fundamentals in China’s aluminium market have been subdued in recent weeks, as Daryna Kovalska

production has exceeded demand. These imbalances have been visible in a range of CommodityMLI (UK) Strategist

indicators. Indeed, the outperformance of LME prices means primary aluminium imports daryna.kovalska@bofa.com