Positioning for Iran resolution

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Positioning for Iran resolution

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IG Credit Strategist

Positioning for Iran resolution 12 June 2026

News reports suggest a deal on Iran could be close. Reaching a deal would be positive Credit Strategy

for IG spreads. Lower risk of an energy price shock should support the cyclical sectors United States

that have underperformed since the start of the war. A conclusion to the war would also

help tame inflation concerns, which are beginning to percolate given the hot CPI / PPI

data this week. Yield could decline, but they are not going back to pre-war levels this

year as oil prices should remain elevated. That means the Energy sector spreads should

remain well supported as well.

Although this is not the first time a potential deal is discussed, this time looks different. Yuri Seliger

Bent oil has fallen to the lowest level since early March. The current level is between the Credit Strategist BofAS

“full reopening” and “partial reopening” scenarios from our commodity strategy team +1 646 855 7209

(see Global Energy Weekly: Hormuz for Hormuz opens new oil path). That suggests the yuri.seliger@bofa.com

market is finally pricing in a high likelihood of a deal. SohyunCredit StrategistMarie Lee

BofAS

Oil > CPI +1sohyun.lee@bofa.com646 855 7217

Wednesday’s CPI report was a bit soft. Still, that does not change our outlook for See Team Page for List of Analysts

elevated yields in the second half of 2026. Our core PCE tracker remains elevated, and

the Fed outlook continues to turn more hawkish. Risks to yields are to the upside. We

expect higher yields to ultimately be supportive for IG spreads this year.

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