Reducing Our Price Forecast on Deal to Reopen Hormuz

研报英文原文证据摘录

Reducing Our Price Forecast on Deal to Reopen Hormuz

Commodities Research

15 June 2026 | 10:17PM EDT

OIL ANALYST

n Reducing price forecast. We reduce our oil price forecast following President Daan Struyven

+1(212)357-4172 |

Trump’s announcement of an interim deal that would lift the US blockade, and daan.struyven@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

reopen the Strait of Hormuz after a scheduled deal signing on Friday (Exhibit 1.

Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby

While full details on the agreement are unclear, we now assume that Persian Gulf +1(646)446-3905 |

yulia.grigsby@gs.com

exports normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July (vs. end of August Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

previously). We are reducing our 2026Q4 Brent forecast to $80 (vs. $90 Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 |

previously) and to $75 (vs. $80 prior) for the 2027 average (Exhibit 1, consistent alexandra.paulus@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

with our estimate that moving the supply normalization process one month Filippo Cuscito

forward reduces the fair value of crude prices for 2026Q4/2027 by around +44(20)7051-9073filippo.cuscito@gs.com|

$10/$5, respectively. We now expect WTI to average $75 in 2026Q4 and $70 in Goldman Sachs International

2027.

n Risks around Mideast supply. The risks around our assumption that

exports/production from the Persian Gulf recover to their pre-war levels by

end-July and October (Exhibit 2), respectively, are two-sided.1

o The supply recovery might be stronger because:

§ This normalization in oil exports from Gulf producers to their

pre-war level might be achieved with a 12mb/d increase in Hormuz

flows from current levels to just 70% of pre-war levels (Exhibit 3).

We estimate that Gulf flows have already risen to 11mb/d with

increases in both Hormuz flows and redirections (Exhibit 4).