Strategy Inc (MSTR.O): Refreshing the Model: Lowering Adj BTC Yield Moderately

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Strategy Inc (MSTR.O): Refreshing the Model: Lowering Adj BTC Yield Moderately

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15 Jun 2026 21:15:18 ET │ 13 pages

Strategy Inc (MSTR.O)

Refreshing the Model: Lowering Adj BTC Yield Moderately

CITI'S TAKE

We update our model to incorporate quarter-to-date capital transactions

including: ~$5.2B of STRC issuance, ~$1.4B of MSTR issuance, purchase of

$1.5B of 2029 converts, and net accumulation of ~85k Bitcoin at an average Buy / High Risk

price of ~$75k (~$6.4B). MSTR’s USD reserve is now $1.1B vs. $2.2B ending Price (15 Jun 26 16:00) US$131.14

1Q’26. Our FY’26 Bitcoin Yield estimate improves 45bps though with an

Target price US$260.00increased mix of STRC funding, our Adjusted Bitcoin Yield estimate declines

modestly by 17bps to 10.42%. Our FY’27-28 yield estimates decline ~90- Expected share price return 98.3%

100bps mostly on an assumed higher dilution (lower MSTR price) and a Expected dividend yield 0.0%

higher mix of STRC. For now, we maintain our existing BTC estimates

Expected total return 98.3%derived from Citi's 12mth Rolling Base Case BTC Forecast for $112k and

maintain our existing view that MSTR’s NAV premium can range 15%-25% Market Cap US$45,958M

(mNAV 1.15x-1.25x), in line with stock’s historical 2.0x-3.0x (adj.) Bitcoin

Yield multiple.

Adj BTC Yield Counters Convexity Leakage —Recall last quarter we switched our Price Performance

Bitcoin Yield estimate methodology. We view preferred dividends as a nominal cost (RIC: MSTR.O, BB: MSTR US)

that forgoes opportunity cost, especially since MSTR’s equity narrative is natured

towards long duration convexity. We think MSTR with STRC resembles a “mileage

option” structure where income-oriented investors fund long-duration BTC

convexity. MSTR can continuously optimize/refinance its capital stack to expand