Birkenstock (BIRK): Further $500mn share buyback announced; remain Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Birkenstock (BIRK): Further $500mn share buyback announced; remain Buy

Goldman Sachs Birkenstock (BIRK)

Buy: Valuation remains attractive given a 17% EPS CAGR over FY26-28E and the

findings from our unit analysis. Our 12-month price target is $52.5. On our numbers,

BIRK trades on a cal. adjusted P/E of 19x in FY26E, which falls quickly to 16x FY27E

reflecting the strong growth profile. This compares to footwear and lifestyle peers

(including Nike, Adidas, On, DOCS, Deckers, VF Corp, Lululemon, Canada Goose, Crocs,

Levi and PVH) with a weighted average P/E of 21x in FY26E and 17x in FY27E, which is

broadly what our PT implies for BIRK.

Thesis on track

In short, our Buy recommendation is underpinned by a business with solid fundamentals

and a differentiated model characterised by strong brand momentum and pricing power

(>90% full‑price realisation), exposure to high‑income cohorts, and industry‑leading

margins enabled by fully integrated European manufacturing. This is further supported

by sizeable growth opportunities in underpenetrated markets such as APAC and

continued runway in core geographies, alongside expanding DTC exposure and

meaningful incremental volume from new facilities that underpin mid‑ to long‑term

growth.

Strong underlying brand momentum continues to be supported by disciplined

volume management and a favourable pricing architecture that underpins

consistent ASP uplift.

Birkenstock’s growth remains constrained by capacity rather than demand, which has

driven robust pricing power (about 1/3rd of its growth algorithm, Exhibit 1) and

supported brand momentum. This is evident in the resilience of the core offer, with the

top five silhouettes accounting for c.75% of sales and the Arizona continuing to grow at

double digits.