Flynas Company SJSC：2Q26初步看法：EBITDA不及预期；3Q指引略低于MSe

研报英文原文证据摘录

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:35 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Flynas Company SJSC | Europe

Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 First Take: EBITDA Miss;

3Q Guidance Slightly Below

MSe

Giulia Faro

Research Associate

Sylvia C Richards

Research Associate

Flynas Company SJSC (4264.SE, FLYNAS AB)

EEMEA - Transport | Saudi Arabia

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest shortfall

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Equal-weight

No Rating

SAR 68.00

SAR 49.52

SAR 81.70- 48.20

SAR 8,462

SAR 3,067

SAR 11,513

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Revenue/EBITDA of SAR2,213m/SAR205m were -0.3%/-14.4% vs MSe and +1.2%/31.3% vs cons.; 3.2% growth/9.3% margin were within LSD-LDD/HSD-LDD guide.

LCC ASK was +0.5% vs MSe/-4.7% vs cons.; load factor of 71.2% was -17.8ppt/0.5ppt, with pricing holding revenue.

RASK rose 22% y/y, but adjusted CASK rose 48% as fuel increased 86%,

compressing EBITDA margin to 9.3% (-150bp/-440bp).

3Q guide of LSD-HSD revenue growth (MSe: 12.4%) and mid-teens to mid-20s

margin (MSe: 26.7%).

Bottom line: slightly negative. 2Q26 revenue of SAR2,213m was broadly in line

with MSe (-0.3%) and 1.2% above consensus, but adjusted EBITDA of SAR205m

missed MSe by 14.4% and consensus by 31.3%, with adj. net income +3.1% vs. MSe

and 37.5% below consensus. The miss was operational: RASK rose 22% y/y to 29.9

halalas (MSe: 29.2 halalas) as flynas pushed pricing, but this could not offset 15%

lower ASK (driven by pro-actively reduced capacity), an 8.4ppt y/y load-factor

decline and a 48% rise in adjusted CASK, led by fuel costs up 86% and weaker fixedcost absorption. The actual margin was within the prior HSD-LDD company guide,

limiting the incremental surprise. ASK was 0.5% above MSe but 4.7% below

consensus, while the 71.2% load factor was close to consensus but materially below

MSe. Hajj revenue missed MSe by 8.2% but beat consensus by 2.1%; General

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