Heineken NV：1H26业绩

研报英文原文证据摘录

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:27 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Heineken NV | Europe

Sarah Simon

Equity Analyst

1H26 Results

Tilly Eno

Equity Analyst

David J Roux

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Equity Analyst

Unchanged

In-line

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Chris Linford, CFA

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Research Associate

Richard Li

Key Takeaways

Research Associate

Q2 OSG +2.7%, ahead of cons. +2.2%, driven by better vols +1.9% (cons. +0.6%)

Heineken NV (HEIN.AS, HEIA NA)

Organic EBIT growth of +6.7% well ahead of cons. +3.3%, but higher FX drag

Beverages | Netherlands

eliminated the beat at EBIT/EPS level

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

FY org EBIT guidance range maintained; expect questions regarding any

conservatism of this / any phasing dynamics e.g. on cost-saving delivery

Expect modestly positive share price reaction, pending conf. call colour. Heineken

reported Q2 OSG of +2.7%, ahead of company-collated consensus at +2.2%, with

Equal-weight

In-Line

€78.00

€77.70

€80.24-63.90

€43,281

€18,196

€58,923

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

total organic volumes also ahead at +1.9% (cons. +0.6%). H1 organic EBIT growth of

+6.7% was also well ahead of consensus at +3.3%, but was offset by a higher FX

drag, resulting in EBIT/EPS broadly in line with consensus. Heineken has reiterated

its +2-6% org EBIT growth guidance for the FY despite the better H1 on this metric

(but acknowledges its prudent approach) – we would expect questions on the call

regarding whether there are any cost-saving phasing dynamics to be aware of (we

note, for example, the improvement in Americas profitability in spite of flat top-line

performance). FX guidance has improved but remains shy of consensus, which,

coupled with ETR now expected at the upper end of the range, implies c.-LSD%

technical downgrades to EPS. However, this may be offset by improved organic

assumptions pending further colour on the call regarding any cost-saving phasing/

…