Locking in momentum

研报英文原文证据摘录

Locking in momentum

Industrials | Multi-Industry, Electrical Equipment & Aerospace

July 24, 2026

Allegion Plc Alexander Virgo Gustavo Gonzalez 44 20 7847 3520 212-653-8998

ALLE | $154.57 Alexander.Virgo@evercoreisi.com Gustavo.Gonzalez@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $180.00 (from Kriti Vardineni

$175.00) 212-801-3882

Earnings Report Kriti.Vardineni@evercoreisi.com

Company Statistics Solid Amrs vol inflection (+5% vs -1% in 1Q), strongest print in ~3yrs.

Dividend Yield 1.4% Non-resi demand indicators point to continued momentum through

Expected Total Return 28.6% H2/into '27. The outlook is prudent, particularly against a tougher comp

Market Capitalization (M) $12,027 in Q3, and highly achievable given current momentum, in our view. Intl

52-Week Range $125.00 - $183.11

Fiscal Year End Dec remains a drag (weak German demand) but margins are expanding in

2H+ (restructuring/ production recovery post-ERP). ALLE remains one

of the cheapest stocks we cover, particularly given inflecting

fundamentals, at a ~25% disc to peers vs 5/10yr avgs of ~10% disc /

Earnings Summary

near parity. We reiterate OP rating and raise PT to $180.

2025 2026E 2027E

Sales (M) Q1 $942 $1,034A .. Revisiting the Buy thesis and what happened in Q2

Q2 $1,022 $1,152A ..

◼ Growth returning to historical levels. What happened in Q2? Q3 $1,070 $1,163 ..

Q4 $1,033 $1,115 .. Vols inflected, with Amrs org +9% driven by vols +5% (strongest in

FY $4,067 $4,463 $4,719 3yrs), price +4%. Both non-resi and resi +HSD. Electronics were

EBITDA (M) Q1 $226 $230A .. +low-teens, led by higher-ed and resi retail/POS. Strength in resi

Q2 $251 $290A .. was a notable surprise and was consumer led vs inventory

Q3 $270 $308 .. stocking in channel. Intl soft (org -1%, vols -2%) on German macro