Pulling the levers… but Int’l still likely a drag this Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

Pulling the levers… but Int’l still likely a drag this Q

Industrials | Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry

June 17, 2026

Allegion Plc Alexander Virgo Gustavo Gonzalez 44 20 7847 3520 212-653-8998

ALLE | $133.70 Alexander.Virgo@evercoreisi.com Gustavo.Gonzalez@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $175.00 Kriti Vardineni

Company Update 212-801-3882

Kriti.Vardineni@evercoreisi.com

Pulling the levers… but Int’l still likely a

Company Statistics

drag this Q Dividend Yield 1.4%

Expected Total Return 29.8% Investor feedback from our recent marketing suggests ALLE is

Market Capitalization (M) $11,490 screening even more favourably on valuation with the stock -15% YTD,

52-Week Range $125.00 - $183.11 -9% rel ASSA (see note here) and -25% rel SPX taking the stock to

Fiscal Year End Dec c11x 2027E EV/EBITA and 20yr relative lows. Anaemic end markets &

execution issues in International haven’t changed much QoQ, so we

think the real earnings momentum here is H2-weighted but will be

Earnings Summary helped by another c3% price increase in Americas effective 29th May.

2025 2026E 2027E We reflect this in our estimates, adding c1-2% on the top line (though

Sales (M) Q1 $942 $1,034A .. dollar-for-dollar on raws/tariffs means margins come down slightly). We

Q2 $1,022 $1,131 .. leave our PT $175 unchanged, and reiterate our OP on:

Q3 $1,070 $1,172 ..

Q4 $1,033 $1,132 .. 1) Growth returning to historical levels: u/lying market

FY $4,067 $4,469 $4,712 dynamics remain muted, though we believe specification-

EBITDA (M) Q1 $226 $230A .. writing volumes continue to show signs outside institutional

Q2 $251 $277 .. demand suggesting 2027 could show volume improvement. In

Q3 $270 $306 .. the meantime, incremental pricing should support the MSD

Q4 $243 $273 ..