Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream: Behind the Meter Bonanza: Part 1 – What is the current landscape?

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Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream: Behind the Meter Bonanza: Part 1 – What is the current landscape?

However, BofA’s power analyst, Ross Fowler, forecasts only 93GW of accredited supply

coming online in the 2026-2030 timeframe. This does not mean total capacity, ELCC

(Effective load carrying capability) evaluates the reliable capacity that renewable

resources can contribute to the grid, particularly during peak demand, and are critical to

understanding the incremental firm demand the grid can handle. For example, 100MW of

tracking solar in PJM is only worth 14MW of accredited supply.

Exhibit 5: US on-grid accredited net power additions of 93 GW over 2026-30

Texas represents 61% of net supply additions

(MW) California Carolinas Central Florida Mid-Atlantic Midwest Southeast Southwest Tennessee Texas US

2027 67 190 2,243 134 634 875 840 1,994 409 11,243 18,628

2028 53 306 2,964 130 796 1,959 837 2,013 524 16,235 25,817

2029 61 418 3,055 211 928 1,581 827 1,934 533 18,490 28,039

2030 69 296 2,328 166 1,786 992 556 2,207 579 11,559 20,539

2026-30 250 1,211 10,590 641 4,144 5,406 3,060 8,148 2,046 57,527 93,023

Source: BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Despite datacenter operators’ preference for the grid (reliability, resiliency and emission

reduction benefits from a power system at scale), the mismatch between unconstrained

demand (177GW) and accredited supply (93GW) means >80GW would need to be met by

behind the meter applications. Behind the meter is bringing your own power generating

assets to a project to bypass using the utilities public transmission grid, solves the

speed and certainty of power questions. When large scale compute is your core business,

this means that risking any multi-year delay could be worth billions in revenue and your