Blackstone, Inc: Very good 2Q; 2027 base fee growth inflection outlook remains intact

研报英文原文证据摘录

Blackstone, Inc: Very good 2Q; 2027 base fee growth inflection outlook remains intact

23 July 2026

Blackstone, Inc

markets activity remain key multi-year growth drivers, while noting that net

realizations are expected to decelerate sequentially in 3Q before a more robust

4Q and 2027. Overall, while the call reinforced a strong medium-term setup, we

expect investor focus to remain on the cadence of fundraising conversion into

base management fee growth, FRE margin progression and the timing of

realization recovery.

All this said, following the results and our catchup-call with investor relations and

revisiting our model post the earnings report and conference call, we have made

several adjustments to our model, including lowering our net realizations outlook

across the horizon on lower realized performance revenue assumptions, while

also trimming our fee related performance revenue outlook slightly (mostly in

credit), and our FRE margin slightly came down vs. prior estimates. This drove our

three-year FRE CAGR down to 17.1% from 17.5%, which adversely impacts our

FRE P/E multiple to 23.9 2027E from 24.5x prior. Although we reduce our PT to

$149 from $150, we reiterate our Buy rating with over 20% upside potential to our

PT.

Key takeaways from 2Q26 earnings call:

• Base management fee re-acceleration: Mgmt. expects 3Q base

management fee growth to remain similar to 2Q before returning to a

double-digit pace in 2027, supported by recent/future fund activations,

scaling perpetual strategies, deployment of credit dry powder and

stabilization in real estate fee trends.

• FRE outlook: 2Q FRE margin came in below our estimate and Consensus,

largely reflecting higher-than-expected compensation expense. That

said, mgmt.